Introduction
The world of blockchain-based assets depend on technical as well as fundamental indicators. Just as traditional stock markets cannot prosper when macro indicators worsen, crypto market also needs liquidity and extra cash from investors who are ready to take risk. Speculative activity obviously slows down when broader economic conditions weaken. People feel more and more inclined to towards safer assets like gold and government treasury bonds. Of all the wrong things that can happen to an economy, stagflation is one of the most serious ones.
Stagflation
Just as the word “smog” is formed by combining “smoke” and “fog”; and “brunch” originates from the combination of “breakfast” and “lunch”, the word “stagflation” comes from “stagnation” and “inflation”. Stagflation refers to an economic situation where inflations persistently remains out of control, the economy overall experiences very slow growth and unemployment rises constantly. Economist worldwide consider stagflation very dangerous because strategies are there to tackle inflation and recession individually, but it is extremely challenging to counter both together.
For example, when recession is looming, the government tries to cut interest rates so that corporations and individual businesspersons may get easy loans and thrive. Money printing also starts to improve the flow of money. Improved flow of money eases unemployment. Conversely, the government reduces the supply of money and raises interest rates to combat inflation. Businesses borrow more and spend less. When both maladies hit at once, countering strategies need to be revised.
Is Today’s Economy at Risk of Stagflation?
As per news, persistently above-expectations inflation numbers have confirmed that the US economy is undergoing uncontrolled inflation. Moreover, unemployment rate has been high throughout 2025. The year started with a relatively acceptable rate of 4.1%, but the latest data in September 2025 projected dismal numbers of 4.4%. Now, these numbers are the highest in the last 4 years or so.
After verification from inflation and unemployment data, the third factor that contributes to stagflation is the decreased or decreasing economic growth. And, if analysts and experts are still hesitant to regard the current situation as stagflation, it is the GDP. It started the year on a strong note but lost momentum later on. The decreased momentum has made experts pessimistic about 2026. Many are talking about recession on mainstream as well as social media.
Stagflation and Cryptocurrency Market
Stocks and cryptocurrencies are considered risky assets, the former more so than the latter. There is widespread consensus that when the prices of gold rise, people are shifting to the safe haven due to some fear. Currently, the gold is hovering around an all time high. Also, AI boom in stocks has granted investors much more than expectations. In such a situation, investors hardly feel any urge to take risk. Despite such an environment, Bitcoin ($BTC) has surged from its 2022 lows of $15,500 to a whopping $126,000. This is because Bitcoin is the safest of all cryptocurrencies. Almost all other coins are still lower even than their bear market levels.
Macroeconomics analysts attribute decreased liquidity towards altcoins as an anticipation of stagflation. They view it as an extra cautious approach by whales who see something that not everyone can see. There are a few voices that advocate an altcoins rally before the market plunges into full-fledged bear market.
Causes of Stagflation
It is clear till now that stagflation refers to a situation where purchasing power of money decreases at the same time that economy slows down and the supply of goods and services plummets. Having known what it is, it is important to dig into the causes of stagflation.
Policy Mismatches Fueling Economic Strain
Central banks influence the economy by regulating the supply of money through monetary policy while governments shape economic activity through fiscal decisions related to spending and taxation. When these two forces move in opposite directions the result can be harmful for overall stability. A rise in taxes reduces the purchasing power of people and slows the pace of growth. On the other hand, an expansion in the money supply through measures such as quantitative easing or lower interest rates increases prices. This imbalance weakens demand and raises inflation at the same time, overall creating conditions that can gradually push an economy toward stagflation.
Abandoning the Gold Standard
Initially, all currencies used to be pegged to the prices of gold. A country could not print money more than its gold reserves. After the second world war, governments gradually abandoned the gold standard, which meant that money could be printed freely, without having to depend on the gold reserves. The step was meant to improve the economy by liberating the government from acquiring gold before printing any new money. But it backfired and resulted in uncontrolled inflation. Whenever it combines with low economic growth, it triggers stagflation.
Supply Shock
Supply shock is a situation where manufacturers have to increase the prices of goods due to rising costs. Production cost may rise due to many factors, of which the most prominent is higher energy prices. When the end users have to spend a lion’s share of their earning on essential commodities, they have less and less to spend elsewhere. The economy overall suffers and stagnates.
How to Combat Stagflation
Combating stagflation requires a combination of fiscal and monetary policies, but the approach depends on the economic perspective. Monetarists focus on controlling inflation by reducing the money supply, which lowers spending and prices but does not immediately encourage growth. Supply-side economists aim to increase production and efficiency through measures such as subsidies, efficiency investments, or energy price controls, which can reduce costs, stimulate output, and lower unemployment. Others prefer a free-market approach, allowing supply and demand to naturally adjust prices and labor allocation, though this method can take years to achieve results and may leave people facing hardship in the meantime.
Conclusion
In a nutshell, persistently high inflation, constantly rising unemployment and declining economic growth is termed by economists as stagflation. It negatively impacts every walk of life, but risky assets such as cryptocurrencies are hit really hard mainly because people are not ready to take risk and neither do they have any extra money for such speculative assets. The current US economy is on the verge of entering into stagflation according to many economic experts.
