The latest bearish wave has driven Dogecoin to lows below $0.2, an event prominent analyst Ali Martinez projected, sparking discussion on what's next for DOGE.
Dogecoin is facing a significant downturn alongside the broader market, trading just above $0.2 after a steep decline to $0.196. DOGE has also recorded a 20% drop over the past week.
The ongoing decline reflects weakened momentum as traders move away from the asset. Meanwhile, network activity
has plummeted
to levels not seen since October 2024, adding to the bearish outlook.
Bearish Breakdown And a Buying Opportunity
While Dogecoin plummeted, it broke down from a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling further downside potential. The pattern initially formed as price action converged within two trendlines.
Despite several attempts to break higher, the price ultimately fell below the lower trendline, confirming the bearish breakout. Market analyst Ali Martinez highlighted this breakdown using a 1-hour timeframe chart for DOGE/USDT perpetual contracts on Binance.
Based on Fibonacci retracement levels, the analyst suggested that DOGE could test the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at $0.20578. Per Martinez, further losses would push the price to the 1.414 Fibonacci level at $0.197 if the decline continues.
Notably, this prediction materialized, as DOGE eventually plummeted to $0.196 before recovering slightly to $0.2014.
https://twitter.com/ali_charts/status/1894147290958630938
Declining Network Activity on Dogecoin
Supporting the bearish scenario, Dogecoin’s network activity has
declined sharply
, according to a separate post by Martinez.
At the time of Martinez's report, the number of active addresses had dropped below 60,000 per day. Whale transactions had also slowed, with only 66 recorded at the time.
These figures indicated reduced engagement among investors, which could add to selling pressure. Historically, lower network activity has correlated with weakened demand, influencing price movements.
Shift in Dogecoin Investor Behavior
Additionally, ownership distribution
data
from IntoTheBlock shows a shift in investor behavior. Long-term holders and mid-term cruisers have declined, while short-term traders have significantly increased. This shift suggests heightened speculative activity, which may contribute to further volatility.
Notably, long-term and mid-term holders have decreased by -2.67% and 11.81%, respectively. This reduction indicates that even swing traders are exiting positions.
Dogecoin Ownership Balance by Time Held
Dogecoin Ownership Balance by Time Held
Meanwhile, short-term traders holding for less than a month have surged by 107.45%. The sharp rise in speculative traders suggests an increased likelihood of rapid price swings and potential sell-offs as these investors seek short-term gains.
What's Next for Dogecoin?
It is important to note that despite these declines, other analysts consider this as a buying opportunity.
Analyst CryptoElites on X
suggests
that Dogecoin could see a fivefold increase next, to potentially $1.2. Notably, the analyst's prediction is based on a cup-and-handle pattern.
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