Ethereum Capitulation Nearing Its End? Key On-Chain Metric Reveals Insights

According to a recent X post by seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Ethereum (ETH) may have already gone through its capitulation phase for this market cycle. Notably, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is down more than 55% over the past year.

Is Ethereum Capitulation Over?

Unlike Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins such as XRP, Solana (SOL), and SUI, Ethereum has endured a challenging two-year stretch. The cryptocurrency was trading at $1,892 exactly two years ago, on April 11, 2023, and is now priced around $1,560 – over 17% lower.

In contrast, BTC has surged from approximately $41,000 two years ago to $82,127 at the time of writing – an increase of nearly 100%. While SOL currently trades below its April 2023 price, unlike ETH, it did manage to reach a new all-time high (ATH) of $293 earlier this year in January.

Understandably, sentiment toward ETH – among both retail and institutional investors – is hovering near all-time lows. However, Martinez believes that “smart money” may be accumulating at current levels, anticipating a near-term reversal.

The analyst pointed out that Ethereum’s Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow has recently dropped below one million. Martinez added:

This historically indicates a macro bottom zone, meaning $ETH might be undervalued and long-term holders are less inclined to sell. It also suggests: sentiment is low, capitulation may have occurred, smart money might be accumulating.

For the uninitiated, Ethereum’s Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow is an on-chain metric that compares the market cap to the dormancy – the average age of ETH being moved – adjusted for unique entities instead of raw addresses. The metric helps identify whether the market is overheated or undervalued by tracking the behavior of long-term holders.

If ETH follows historical trends, it may be approaching a momentum reversal. In a separate X post, crypto trader Merlijn The Trader suggested that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is nearing a peak, which could shift capital into altcoins and trigger a short-term rally.

At the time of writing, BTC.D stands around 63.5%. A potential pivot by the US Federal Reserve toward quantitative easing (QE) could inject fresh liquidity into the market, possibly sparking a mini altcoin rally.

ETH Demands Cautious Optimism

While there are multiple signs that ETH may be close to bottoming out , some indicators suggest that there could be continued weakness for the digital asset before any meaningful momentum shift.

In a recent analysis, Martinez warned that ETH could fall as low as $1,200 if the current sell-off continues. Further, ongoing capital outflows from US-based spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETF) remain a concern for the asset’s short-term outlook.

That said, crypto analyst NotWojak recently noted that ETH may be on the verge of a breakout, with a potential upside target of $1,835. At press time, ETH is trading at $1,557, down 2.3% in the past 24 hours.