A Rally We Mostly Caught – But Did We Get Defensive Too Early?

Asset	Positioning	18 Apr Price	25 Apr Price	Weekly Change	Verdict
BTC	Overweight → Defensive	$84,600	$93,300	+10.3%	✅ Caught most of the move, but exited early
ETH	Neutral → Underweight (Wed 24th)	$1,580	$1,765	+11.7%	✅ Took profit near top
SOL	Neutral	$134	$151.5	+13.1%	✅ Right to stay neutral – strong but volatile

What We Got Right ✅

➕ Overweight Bitcoin early
We nailed the core trend. BTC rallied from $84.6K to over $93K, driven by strong ETF flows and macro momentum.

➕ Underweight Ethereum near top
We downgraded ETH just after its parabolic spike. It pulled back the next day and ended the week +11.7% with signs of exhaustion.

➕ Neutral Solana throughout
SOL gained ~13%, boosted by its ETF and short squeezes, but remained volatile. Staying neutral avoided overexposure to drawdowns midweek.

What We Got Wrong ❌

❌ Going Defensive Too Early
Our biggest miss was trimming risk just as a record-breaking inflow day ($1B+) pushed prices higher. While the risk signals were flashing red (RSI, Bollinger), macro catalysts took over.

➡️ What surprised us: White House declarations easing China trade tensions
This move sparked a broad risk-on move. This wasn't on our radar when we shifted to 60% cash, and we underestimated how fast the sentiment would flip.

Key Lessons

? Macro Surprises Beat Technicals
ETF flows and momentum were strong, but it was the geopolitical narrative shift that drove the breakout. Staying nimble and reactive to policy headlines is critical.

? Partial Profit-Taking > Full Exit
We’ll adjust going forward by letting the profits run

? Narratives Drive Markets
From sovereign fund interest to $TRUMP token hype to regulatory optimism, narrative momentum added fuel to inflows. We'll emphasize this more in future positioning.

Understanding Our Benchmark and Positioning Terms

Our benchmark is a market-cap weighted index composed of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) — the three most widely held and institutionally tracked assets in the space. Weightings are determined based on each asset’s relative market capitalization at the start of the review period.

When we refer to “neutral weight,” we mean a position aligned with the benchmark weight. An “overweight” position indicates we hold a larger allocation to that asset than its benchmark weight, reflecting higher conviction or expected outperformance. Conversely, an “underweight” position means our allocation is below the benchmark weight, typically due to near-term risks or weaker conviction.