Bitcoin Dominance Drops; Bullish and Bearish Altcoin Scenarios Revealed

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The crypto market is off to a strong start today, as Bitcoin is close to its highest price ever, and altcoins are also going up. The rally comes as the GENIUS stablecoin bill passed a key vote in the Senate, which lifted market confidence.

If BTC breaks past its $109K all-time high, it could drive prices even higher, triggering a full-blown altcoin season. Crypto market just broke out after 3 years and retested key levels. Analysts believe that altcoins will rally more than BTC due to the upcoming rate cuts, staking ETFs, and new regulations that will boost risk assets.

Bitcoin vs Altcoins

The battle between Bitcoin and altcoins is heating up and it all comes down to one crucial level on the Bitcoin Dominance chart. Bitcoin Dominance is currently at 64%, a crossroads that could either send altcoins crashing or launch them into a new rally. What happens next could shape the short to mid-term outlook for altcoins.

What If Bitcoin Dominance Rises?

If Bitcoin moves higher from here, breaking above the 64% dominance, then it could attract even more attention and capital. This could mean that altcoins might stay weak or even drop further. But if Bitcoin gets pushed down below 64%, then altcoins could bounce, sparking an altcoin rally in the market.

If Bitcoin’s price keeps climbing, then BTC dominance could stay high and altcoins will lag behind. And if Bitcoin pulls back or stays steady, altcoins will get a chance to shine on.

Altcoin Season To Start After BTC Hits Key Level

Arthur Hayes predicts that altcoin season will not start until Bitcoin breaks above $110,000. Once that level is cleared, Bitcoin could rally toward $150K–$200K by summer, with profits likely flowing into altcoins soon after. He expects the 2025 alt season to be smaller than 2021’s noting that many older tokens with high FDVs and low demand may not bounce back.

Is It Too Early For Altcoin Season?

Ethereum has outpaced Bitcoin, pushing the ETH/BTC pair up 34% in a week, its first major breakout since Dec 2024. This has fueled altcoin season talks. However, key indicators say it’s not here yet.

In 2022, Ethereum jumped 121% in just over a month, that sparked a major altcoin season. Back then, 75% of the top 50 coins outperformed Bitcoin, and the altcoin season index hit 96. However, currently the Altcoin Season Index is just at 25, and only 18% of top 50 coins are outperfroming BTC.

A full altcoin season may still be a few weeks away, but its not confirmed yet. Bitcoin Dominance has dropped to 63% as of writing.

Will Markets Stablilise?

Some analysts claim that the drop in Bitcoin dominance does not guarantee an altcoin season. Investors might shift to Bitcoin if volatility kicks in again due to the ongoing macro uncertainties. Instead, with both bitcoin and altcoins having strong reasons to stay, the market could stabilize rather than shift dramatically.