Gemini Space Station Inc. is moving to enter the prediction markets business, joining a wave of crypto and traditional finance firms eyeing the emerging sector, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The cryptocurrency exchange founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss filed an application in May seeking to establish a derivatives exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Sources indicate the company has discussed using this platform to offer prediction market products, which allow users to bet on outcomes of elections, sports events, and other real-world occurrences.
The timeline for CFTC approval remains uncertain, as the regulatory process for new exchanges can extend from several months to multiple years.
Gemini's approach involves building its own licensed infrastructure rather than partnering with existing platforms – a route taken by competitors like Robinhood, which integrated Kalshi's event contracts into its app.
The market has attracted significant attention following strong performance by early entrants. Kalshi and Polymarket have both recorded substantial trading volumes in recent months, while major traditional exchanges CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange have announced their own initiatives.
Within crypto, Coinbase recently signaled plans to add event contracts as part of its expanded product roadmap, and Truth Social said it will integrate prediction market trading into the Trump Media-backed social network through a partnership with Crypto.com .
Gemini went public in September and is set to report first-quarter earnings November 10. The company disclosed in its IPO filing intentions to launch contracts covering economic, financial, political, and sports predictions. However, shares have declined significantly since the debut, and the exchange remains unprofitable while commanding a relatively small share of U.S. crypto trading.
Industry analysts view prediction markets as a potential growth avenue for crypto platforms seeking revenue diversification, though regulatory questions persist around jurisdictional oversight between federal derivatives regulators and state gaming authorities.
