According to BlockBeats, on July 26th, Tony Pasquariello, head of hedge fund business at Goldman Sachs, stated that the current US stock market is experiencing significant internal divergence, with high momentum factor volatility, making the market "extremely difficult to navigate." He advised investors to simplify their portfolios and concentrate risk on positions with the highest confidence. Although the S&P 500 index as a whole has limited volatility, the gap between the implied volatility of individual stocks and the index continues to widen, indicating that demand for single-stock options and market dispersion trading remain high.

Pasquariello has turned positive on gold. He believes that a large number of speculative long positions since 2026 have been shaken out, central bank gold purchases have resumed, and gold prices have repeatedly found support around $4,000. While rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar may pose short-term pressures, this provides investors with opportunities to build structural long positions on dips, with the long-term logic primarily based on the continued rise in global government debt burdens.

In the AI sector, related credit supply has reached $489 billion this year, with major spenders continuing to expand investment. However, the market still needs to confirm whether the massive AI capital expenditures can translate into revenue growth. Google Cloud revenue grew by 82% year-over-year, but the link between capital expenditures and revenue growth remains unclear. The upcoming earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will be the next test.

Pasquariello also pointed out that rising expectations of a Fed rate hike and the situation in Iran could exacerbate volatility in US stocks. Brent crude oil has risen 33% this month, and the expansion of the conflict to areas such as the Red Sea has further complicated the situation. The liquidity situation is relatively positive; large-scale financing transactions from the previous period have been largely digested, and with the earnings season nearing its end, stock buybacks are expected to accelerate significantly in August.

According to BlockBeats, on July 26th, The Kobeissi Letter reported that the total market capitalization of global stock markets has risen to 137% of global GDP, approaching its historical high. Since April 2025, this proportion has increased by 40 percentage points, reaching a level comparable to the peak during the 2021 meme stock frenzy.

In comparison, before the 2008 financial crisis, the peak ratio of global stock market capitalization to GDP was approximately 120%. This month, the total global stock market capitalization has risen to a record $166 trillion.

The total market capitalization of the US stock market is approximately $77 trillion, accounting for about 46% of the global total. AI is driving historic growth in the stock market.

According to a Bloomberg report on July 26, the approximately $1.4 billion in revenue earned by Trump and his associates through Memecoin and token businesses has become the biggest obstacle to the passage of the Claritism Act. Democrats are demanding stricter provisions to prevent the president from continuing to profit from the crypto industry, which his government regulates, and Trump needs the support of at least seven Senate Democrats to push the bill through.

Democrats oppose having a Trump-appointed Attorney General lead the Justice Department as the primary law enforcement agency for ethical guidelines and are demanding independent law enforcement powers for state attorneys general. Senators Ruben Gallego and Thom Tillis are discussing a compromise, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune has indicated the bill may not pass before the August recess.

Critics argue that the current draft bill allows Trump to sell significant interests in his crypto businesses or place them in blind trusts, but does not mandate such sales; the provisions only apply to situations where officials have a "direct interest" in crypto assets, and it remains unclear whether Trump's approximately 38% stake in World Liberty Financial through DT Marks DEFI LLC applies. The bill also does not restrict children of government officials, and the ethical requirements expire on January 20, 2029.

In addition to ethical concerns, Democrats are calling for stronger consumer protections and measures against illicit finance, while the banking industry is pushing for tighter limits on stablecoin rewards. The probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year has dropped to about 33%, roughly half the probability it had after the Senate Banking Committee supported an earlier version in May.