According to Windemute's latest weekly report, current market dynamics can be summarized from two aspects: macroeconomics and digital assets. ### **Macroeconomic Level: Geopolitical News Dominates the Market, Oil Prices and US Treasury Yields Fluctuate Significantly** Last week, global markets were entirely driven by geopolitical conflict news: - On Tuesday, the Iranian president signaled a ceasefire, causing the S&P 500 to surge by approximately 2.9%, while Brent crude oil fell back to $105; - On Wednesday, Trump delivered a tough speech, promising "extremely severe" strikes against Iran for 2-3 weeks and indicating no intention to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil surged 11% to over $111 on Thursday, while Asian markets suffered significant declines; - On Sunday, Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants on Tuesday, while also stating that an agreement was "very likely" to be reached before Monday, with a 45-day ceasefire framework reportedly under discussion. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.36% (a cumulative increase of 40bp since the conflict), and swap market pricing indicated a zero probability of a rate cut at the Fed meeting on April 28-29; PCE data will be released on Thursday, and the market is focused on whether the oil price shock will transmit to the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. ### **Digital Assets: Bitcoin's performance was lackluster, Ethereum stood out, and Solana fell due to a hacker attack** - **Bitcoin**: It only rose 2% last week, with the Fear & Greed Index at 9 (extreme fear zone), and social sentiment at its most bearish level since the conflict; institutional buying remains key support—ETFs saw net inflows of $1.32 billion in March (the strongest since October 2025), Strategy increased its holdings by 44,000 Bitcoins, and Morgan Stanley received approval to list its spot ETF at a 14bp fee rate; however, ETFs turned to outflows of $414 million in the last week of March, and the exchange whale ratio rose from 0.34 to 0.79 since January, with OTC trading data showing institutions shifting from buying to neutral to net selling. - **Ethereum**: Outperformed, with a weekly gain of 4.2%, its staking yield becoming a differentiating advantage in a "higher and longer" interest rate environment. - **Solana**: Price fell below $80 due to a hack of the Drift protocol (loss of $285 million, the second largest hack in Solana's history). ### **Key Node Reminder** Wintermute emphasizes that Tuesday's deadline in the Strait of Hormuz is a key point to watch: the 45-day ceasefire framework is the most concrete de-escalation effort since the conflict began, but damage has already been done to Iranian energy facilities, Gulf refineries, and port logistics; even a full ceasefire cannot restore pre-war shipping capacity overnight. If Tuesday's "Power Plant Day" threat materializes and Iran retaliates, the oil price risk premium will be immediately rebuilt.

According to Huoxun Finance, some banks in Argentina have begun testing JPM Coin, a deposit token designed by JPMorgan Chase for institutional users. Banco CMF is one of the confirmed participants, and the financial institution plans to use JPM Coin in its back-end settlement workflow to improve settlement speed and efficiency.

According to Huoxun Finance, crypto market analysts point out that the current Bitcoin pullback is significantly smaller than the 64.3% drop in 2017-2018 and the same period in 2021-2022, and is closer to the mild scenario of 2013-2015. However, this does not confirm that a bottom has been formed. Bitcoin's price is currently slightly above 1.25 times its realized price ($67,675), and the market is in a key valuation range: if this range holds, or if the price briefly dips below it and then quickly recovers, the market structure remains neutral; if it continues to break below the support zone, it will likely test the $54,000-$58,000 range near the realized price ($54,140).

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Web3 security platform Immunefi announced on its X platform that DeFi protocol Alchemix has relaunched its bug bounty program based on its latest v3 contracts, offering rewards up to $300,000. This program aims to encourage security researchers to review the new version of the contract code, identify potential vulnerabilities early, and improve the overall security of the protocol. Immunefi stated that now is a crucial window of opportunity to audit the relevant code and participate in the bounty program.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Hyperscale Data, a NYSE American company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, announced that its Bitcoin treasury holdings have increased to 639,2135 Bitcoins, with a total market value of approximately $44.1 million. This includes 591,3761 Bitcoins held by its wholly-owned subsidiary Sentinum (including approximately 440,2341 Bitcoins acquired on the open market and approximately 151,1420 Bitcoins obtained from its Bitcoin mining operations, as well as approximately 47,1935 BTC acquired by another subsidiary, ACG, from the open market). As of April 6th, the company's total assets, including cash and Bitcoin, have exceeded $100 million. (PRNewswire)