Huoxun Finance reported on February 22nd that economist Timothy Peterson, an investment advisor at Cane Island, tweeted that Bitcoin has delivered positive returns in 50% of the past 24 months, meaning there's an 88% probability that Bitcoin will rise in the next 10 months. He predicts an average return of 82% for Bitcoin, with the price potentially reaching $122,000. Peterson explained that this informal indicator he uses tracks Bitcoin cycles by counting the number of months with positive returns over the past 24 months. While this indicator reflects frequency rather than price increases, it remains very useful for identifying inflection points. He also noted that even if Bitcoin consolidates in the coming months, this indicator may decline.

According to a report by Delphi Digital on its X platform, Hyperliquid saw $2.5 billion in trading volume on Christmas Day. Six weeks later, the protocol generated $25 billion in trading volume during a single trading day. Since late December of last year, its total trading volume has exceeded $382 billion, driven by a doubling of contract types attracting a large number of traders and an expansion in trading volume.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Sonic Labs CEO Mitchell Demeter has announced his departure on his personal social media account: "I have left Sonic Labs. Although my time there was short, I am grateful for the experience and wish the company all the best." Demeter took office last September and has been relatively inactive on social media; this departure announcement is his first post of 2026.

Huoxun Finance reported on February 22nd that NikitaBier, head of X product, questioned Infodex's list of the most valuable startups in 2025 in a tweet, specifically pointing out issues with the fintech company Kalshi (valued at $1.1 billion) mentioned on the list. He stated that the information on the list was "clearly false," and that the account belonged to or was associated with the brand. He questioned whether the purpose was to increase click-through rates by placing a photo of a woman next to the logo. Furthermore, he demanded that the publisher disclose whether this was paid promotional content for Kalshi, otherwise the account might be suspended. In addition, regarding the issue of rampant undisclosed advertising, NikitaBier responded that a disclosure function would be launched next week.

According to a recent analysis by crypto economist Timothy Peterson, Bitcoin still possesses structural upside potential amid the current bear market correction. The data shows that 50% of the past 24 months have recorded positive returns (according to CoinGlass data, positive return months in 2025 include April, May, June, July, and September). This indicator suggests a high probability of a positive return inflection point within any 24-month cycle. Peterson extrapolates that there is an 88% probability that Bitcoin will be higher than its current level in the next 10 months (until December 2026). He emphasizes that this statistical model suggests the market may be approaching a turning point, rather than continuing its downward trend. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $68,173, down nearly 25% from its year-to-date high, erasing most of the gains following the 2024-2025 US election. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to "Extreme Fear" at 9 points, and social media Bitcoin prediction activity is waning (Santiment data), indicating a neutral sentiment. (Cointelegraph)