This issue provides a comprehensive analysis of BTC from short-term to long-term perspectives, taking into account both sentiment and funding factors.
Technical Structure: On the evening of December 26th, BTC quickly dropped from 89000 to 86600 before entering a low-level consolidation phase. It rebounded to above 87300, but volume was weak, indicating insufficient buying pressure. Short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment and converging, the MACD histogram has turned positive, and the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory, indicating weakening downward momentum but not yet strengthening. The daily chart remains in a downward channel, with moving averages suppressing the price. The daily MACD histogram has turned positive and expanded, forming a potential bullish divergence, suggesting weakening downward momentum and a potential technical rebound window. Key price levels: Support 86600, 85500–84500; Resistance 87500–87700, 88000–88200, with strong resistance above 89000.
Sentiment and Funding: The Fear & Greed Index is at "Extreme Fear," serving as a contrarian indicator. BTC market share remains high, while USDT market capitalization has slightly declined, with funds only tentatively flowing back in. Whales have made large transfers, but the direction is unclear, requiring caution. Overall Assessment: Short-term consolidation and correction, medium-term bearish, and long-term downward momentum weakening. Strategy: Aggressive long positions can be initiated with small positions at 86800-87000 if volume increases and stabilization occurs; conservative short positions can be attempted with small positions at 87700-88000 if resistance is encountered. Take Profit: Long at 87700/88400, Short at 86800/85500; Stop Loss: Long below 86500, Short below 88200.
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