Celery: Bitcoin Price Scenario Prediction for June 18 (00:06 Beijing Time)

From a weekly chart perspective, the downtrend has completed its top-to-bottom reversal, meaning the rebound has ended and a new downtrend is about to begin. Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, and his monetary policy stance prioritizes quantitative tightening to control inflation, followed by interest rate cuts to stabilize growth. In other words, quantitative tightening is the absolute priority, with interest rate cuts being secondary. Controlling inflation has been given a very high priority, which puts strong downward pressure on risk assets. Furthermore, there are reports that the US and Israel are preparing to restart military action against Iran. If this restarts, a rise in US Treasury yields is practically a certainty, which will also put downward pressure on cryptocurrencies. In terms of chart pattern, the monthly chart currently shows a three-day winning streak followed by a decline, with the price action pressured by the 30-day moving average (MA30). Therefore, my view is that the market will be predominantly bearish for a considerable period. My trading strategy is to gradually short above 78,000. If the market continues to fluctuate, add to short positions on rebounds to 79,300, with a stop-loss at 79,600. For short-term traders, the target is 76,000; for traders using a phased approach, the target can be gradually lowered to around 73,000. Looking at the long term, my view is that the market will likely accelerate its break below 6 at some point in the second half of the year.