Goldman Sachs: Hong Kong stock market expected to see over HK$2 trillion in share lock-up expirations.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Goldman Sachs stated that with the expiration of IPO lock-up periods, the Hong Kong market may see approximately US$274 billion (about HK$2.13 trillion) in new share supply over the next 12 months, and strong demand for stocks is expected to absorb this inflow. The Goldman Sachs report points out that the dual demand from passive index funds and southbound capital constitutes an important liquidity buffer, effectively mitigating the selling pressure brought by the lifting of lock-up restrictions. Historical experience shows that within 3 to 6 months after the lock-up period expires, share prices typically experience a moderate decline of 4% to 7%, while returns vary significantly. Short-term performance after the lock-up period expires is mainly determined by the proportion of shares released from lock-up to total share capital, while medium-term returns are structurally driven by the proportion of freely tradable shares after the lock-up period expires and the performance of the shares before the lock-up period expires. Companies with a high cornerstone shareholding ratio, especially those with domestic cornerstone investors, often face greater selling pressure after the lock-up period expires. (Jinshi)