According to BlockBeats, on August 17th, according to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) , since xm39, a geopolitical conflict trader, first tracked the market on July 30th, Polymarket's probability of "the US invading Iran before 2027" has dropped from its initial entry range of approximately 27.63% to 16.5%. However, Polymarket has continued to increase its bets and expanded its trading from a single bet on crude oil to a "long oil, short equity" combination.
Currently, xm39 has invested approximately $321,100 in this prediction market, a 44% increase since the initial monitoring, with the average cost decreasing to 24.49%. The current value of the position is approximately $216,300, with a floating loss of approximately $104,800, representing a loss of 32.6%. This morning, it continued to buy 25 times with approximately a 16% probability.
Meanwhile, its Hyperliquid position has expanded from a single long WTI contract of approximately $13.22 million at the time of initial tracking to approximately $17.606 million.
A 20x leveraged long position in WTI yielded approximately $7.299 million, with a paper profit of approximately $70,500.
A 30x leveraged short position in XYZ100 resulted in a loss of approximately $13,400, with a total investment of approximately $10.307 million.
This morning, xm39 simultaneously added approximately $2.867 million in WTI long positions and $7.128 million in XYZ100 short positions, while continuing to place approximately $2.664 million in crude oil buy orders between $79.06 and $81.21.