According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily Planet Daily, the probability of the "Opinion coin launch before Chinese New Year" betting event has plummeted to 18%, down from a previous probability of as high as 75%. Previously, it was reported that the Opinion website added an airdrop binding interface, supporting up to five wallets for allocation and binding.

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily, the probability of a bet on "the US government is expected to shut down again before Valentine's Day" is currently 48%. This probability had previously risen to 57%, but has now slightly decreased. The total amount wagered is approximately $87,000.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that the Nevada Gaming Control Commission has filed a civil enforcement lawsuit in the First Judicial District Court of Nevada, accusing Coinbase of offering unlicensed sports betting services through its Coinbase Financial Markets division. The filing shows that the regulator is also requesting a temporary restraining order and a preliminary injunction, requiring Coinbase to cease "operating a sports betting-related derivatives exchange and prediction market" in Nevada. Mike Dreitzer, chairman of the Nevada Gaming Control Commission, stated that this move aims to fulfill regulatory responsibilities and protect the local gaming industry and the interests of state residents. This lawsuit comes less than a week after Coinbase announced its partnership with Kalshi to launch prediction market services in all 50 states. Although Kalshi is regulated federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), state regulators can still challenge its operations. Furthermore, Nevada recently took similar action against Polymarket, for which a court previously granted a temporary restraining order prohibiting it from offering event-based betting services to state residents. These cases are also seen as potential challenges to federal-level prediction market regulatory authority. (Cointelegraph)

Odaily Planet Daily reports that prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are fiercely competing for New York users, both using "free food" as a customer acquisition tactic. Kalshi reportedly gave away $50 worth of free food to users on Tuesday to attract more participants to its real-world event prediction products. Almost simultaneously, its main competitor, Polymarket, announced plans to open "New York's first free grocery store" on February 12th, promoting it through social media. Analysts believe that both promotions, occurring on the eve of the Super Bowl, reflect the direct competition between the two companies for user attention and betting volume. At the same time, this type of giveaway marketing also addresses the growing cost of living pressure in the New York area, an issue repeatedly emphasized in the campaign of newly elected New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. (bloomberg)

Huoxun Finance News, February 3rd - According to Fortune magazine, Kairos, a professional prediction market trading terminal, announced the completion of a $2.5 million funding round. The round was led by a16zcrypto, with participation from GenevaTrading, the University of Illinois, and angel investors. The company's valuation was not disclosed. Kairos was co-founded by Jay Malavia (CEO) and Zayd Alzein (CTO), both former employees of the traditional financial firm Cboe Global Markets. They founded the project after noticing the fragmented information and disjointed user experience in the prediction market industry. Their platform aims to integrate market data and trading information from leading prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, providing a fast, customizable dashboard that synchronizes relevant news and trading data. The company plans to launch a private beta version in the coming weeks. Currently, the team consists of only two co-founders, and hiring is expected to begin after the funding round.

Huoxun Finance reported on February 3 that, according to Cointelegraph, a Nevada court has issued a 14-day temporary restraining order against Blockratize, the operator of the prediction market platform Polymarket, ordering it to immediately cease offering event-based contract trading to Nevada residents. The court ruled in the order that the sports and other event market contracts offered by Polymarket constitute unlicensed gambling, not regulated financial products. The judge stated that allowing the platform to continue operating without a gambling license would cause "immediate" and "irreparable" damage to Nevada's ability to regulate gambling integrity, prevent minors from gambling, and enforce suitability standards. The court therefore rejected Blockratize's argument that the Commodity Exchange Act grants the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive jurisdiction over its event contracts, finding that state gambling laws remain applicable.

A Nevada judge has issued a 14-day temporary restraining order against Blockratize, operator of the prediction market Polymarket, prohibiting it from offering sports event contracts to Nevada residents. This ruling challenges industry arguments that federal goods and services law takes precedence over state gambling rules. The court upheld the Nevada Gaming Control Board's application, finding that Polymarket's sports and other event marketplaces constitute unlicensed gambling, not regulated financial products. The judge noted that if the platform continues to operate without a gambling license, it will cause irreparable damage to the state's ability to regulate gambling integrity, minor gambling, and compliance standards. Previously, Tennessee had also requested that Polymarket, Kalshi, and other platforms cease offering sports event contracts in the state.

According to information on related pages, the prediction market platform Polymarket recently launched several prediction topics related to the Chinese New Year Gala. One of the predictions is whether renowned singer Li Guyi will perform at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala. In addition, the platform also launched predictions related to "robot brands participating in the Spring Festival Gala," with candidate brands including Unitree Robotics and Zhipu.

Huoxun Finance reported on February 3rd that Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) responded to four recent FUD rumors on Twitter: Regarding the rumor of $7 million in trading volume caused by a fake Polymarket post, CZ clarified that this event did not exist and did not appear in any prediction markets. Regarding the statement that "CZ canceled the supercycle," he stated that he was merely expressing a decrease in market confidence and had no ability to control market cycles. Regarding the claim that "Binance sold $1 billion worth of Bitcoin," CZ pointed out that this was the trading behavior of Binance users and had nothing to do with Binance; Binance wallet balances only changed when users withdrew. Regarding the question of "Binance SAFU Fund not converting to BTC as planned," CZ explained that the fund conversion would be completed within 30 days, possibly concentrated near the deadline or weekly, and emphasized that Binance, as the centralized exchange with the best global liquidity, would not conduct purchase operations through DEXs. Furthermore, he stated that the $1 billion operation had a limited impact on Bitcoin's $1.7 trillion market capitalization and was merely a symbolic gesture. Finally, CZ stated that he will continue to focus on building BNB.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that CZ recently responded to several market rumors circulating recently, stating that many of them are "FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) with overly vivid imaginations." Regarding the claim of a "$7 million betting event on Polymarket," CZ stated that this event did not occur on Polymarket or any prediction market, and the related trading volume is also false information. Regarding the rumor that "CZ canceled the supercycle," CZ clarified that he only stated that his "confidence has decreased compared to before," and he did not make any decisive judgments about market cycles. Regarding the claim that "Binance sold $1 billion worth of Bitcoin," CZ pointed out that the actual situation was that Binance users were selling Bitcoin, not Binance itself; changes in Binance wallet balances only occurred when users withdrew funds. Furthermore, regarding the question of why there was no obvious on-chain activity after the SAFU fund was converted to BTC, CZ stated that Binance had previously stated that it would gradually complete the relevant operations within 30 days, and that the scale of this transaction has a limited impact relative to Bitcoin's market capitalization of approximately $1.7 trillion; it is more of a confidence-building measure. CZ concluded by stating that he will continue to focus on building and advancing related work.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) is in early discussions with retail brokers and market makers to relaunch binary options contracts, aiming to compete with the rapidly growing prediction market. Kalshi and Polymarket saw a record $17 billion in trading volume in January. Cboe previously launched the product in 2008 but subsequently discontinued it; it is now seeking to reposition it through a compliant design as a starting point for retail investors entering the options market. The plan will be regulated by either the SEC or the CFTC. (WSJ)

According to Dune data, despite the sharp drop in cryptocurrency prices last weekend, prediction market trading remained active, with weekly trading volume reaching a new all-time high of 26.39 million. Polymarket led the pack with 13.34 million transactions, followed by Kalshi with 11.88 million and Opinion with 379,300. Furthermore, prediction market trading volume remained high, with Polymarket achieving $2 billion in trading volume last week, a weekly increase of 18.4%, ranking first; Kalshi followed with $1.4 billion in trading volume last week, a weekly increase of 8.5%.

Huoxun Finance reported on February 2nd that, according to Decrypt, a Nevada court issued a temporary restraining order prohibiting Blockratize, the entity behind Polymarket, from offering event-based contracts in the state for two weeks. The court held that the platform's activities may have violated Nevada gambling laws and were not protected by federal derivatives-specific regulations. Judge Woodbury ruled that the damage caused by circumventing Nevada's "comprehensive regulatory system" was "direct, irreparable, and cannot be adequately remedied by compensatory damages." This decision further increases regulatory pressure on prediction markets, following enforcement action in Tennessee and bans imposed by Portugal and Hungary.

A Nevada court has issued a two-week temporary restraining order against Blockratize, the operating entity behind the prediction market platform Polymarket, prohibiting it from offering sports and event contracts to Nevada residents. The court held that Polymarket's operations may violate Nevada's gambling laws and are not protected by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) "exclusive regulatory jurisdiction." The ruling stated that the Commodity Exchange Act does not grant the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over Polymarket contracts, and that a platform operating without a state license would hinder the Nevada gambling regulator from fulfilling its statutory duties to prevent match-fixing, underage participation, and the involvement of unqualified individuals. The court considered maintaining the integrity of the state's gambling system to be in the public interest and therefore supported the temporary injunction. If the ruling is upheld in subsequent hearings, Polymarket and its competitors, such as Kalshi, may be required to apply for gambling licenses state by state or be forced to withdraw from the sports-related market. Previously, regulatory agencies in Hungary, Portugal, and the state of Tennessee in the United States had also imposed restrictions on Polymarket, indicating that prediction markets are facing increasingly stringent state-level compliance pressures. (Decrypt)

Huoxun Finance reported on February 1st that Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), founder of FTX, has been posting a series of articles on his X platform account, stating that US President Trump is right on cryptocurrency issues, while Biden has messed it up. These posts reportedly came a few days after the release of former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison. SBF also praised Trump's actions on issues outside of cryptocurrency, claiming, "All the world leaders I've met have had enough of Biden, who chose Gary Gensler as Chairman of the SEC." According to data from the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, traders currently believe there is a 17% chance Trump will pardon SBF before 2027.

Huoxun Finance News, February 1st - According to official news, Jupiter announced the integration of Polymarket, making it an innovative forecasting platform on Solana. Users can directly access Polymarket through the built-in forecasting function of the Jupiter App.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that SBF's X platform account has recently published a series of posts stating that US President Trump is right on cryptocurrency issues, while Biden has messed it up. These posts reportedly came a few days after the release of former Alameda Research CEO Caroline Ellison. Furthermore, SBF praised Trump's actions on issues outside of cryptocurrency, claiming that "all the world leaders I've met have had enough of Biden, who chose Gary Gensler as Chairman of the SEC." According to data from the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, traders currently believe there is a 17% chance that Trump will pardon SBF before 2027.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Jupiter announced on its X platform that it will integrate the prediction market Polymarket. This integration will make Jupiter an innovative prediction platform on Solana, and users can directly access Polymarket through the built-in "Prediction" function in the Jupiter App.

According to data from prediction market Polymarket, as reported by Odaily Planet Daily, the probability of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh being nominated by Trump as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve has surged again to 95%.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam stated that the agency has decided to develop new rules for prediction markets due to significant increases in trading volume on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket during the 2024 US presidential election. Behnam pointed out that the prediction market currently lacks regulatory transparency, and the new rules aim to establish a clearer operational framework and regulatory standards to address the growing market demand. (Bloomberg)