According to Odaily Seer, an account with a winning percentage exceeding 58% (address: 0x959afc4649fb9ed03c0205070fa114eec4f97b64) purchased $270,000 worth of bets on the Thunder defeating the Clippers in the Polymarket "NBA Regular Season Thunder vs. Clippers" prediction event, with an average opening price of 76.2¢. The NBA regular season game between the Thunder and Clippers started at 10:00 AM Beijing time today, and the game is currently in the first quarter. The NBA regular season is now nearing its end, with the Thunder holding a record of 63 wins and 16 losses, ranking 1st in the Western Conference; the Clippers have a record of 41 wins and 38 losses, ranking 8th in the Western Conference. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of Israel taking military action against Iranian nuclear power plants before April 30th has risen to 96% on Polymarket, a 51% increase in 24 hours. The contract rules state that if Israel launches a military strike against any Iranian power plant before April 30th, the market will mark it as "yes." Otherwise, it will mark it as "no." This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile attacks, aerial bombing, and military operations by Israeli ground personnel. Cyberattacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions are not considered in resolving disputes in this market. Israeli airstrikes, missile attacks, or drone attacks that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their targets will not be considered in this market. Senior Israeli officials have stated that Israel believes a ceasefire is premature and hopes the military action against Iran can continue for at least another month. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing them in.

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "NBA Regular Season Hawks vs. Cavaliers" prediction event, an account with a winning percentage over 55% (address: 0xc6b6ffce6c52b6fdf4bad57de303939f19ab13ac) purchased $120,000 worth of bets on the Hawks defeating the Cavaliers, with an average opening price of 39¢. The NBA regular season Hawks vs. Cavaliers game started at 7:00 AM Beijing time today, and the game is about to enter halftime. The NBA regular season is currently nearing its end; the Hawks have a record of 45 wins and 34 losses, ranking 5th in the Eastern Conference; the Cavaliers have a record of 50 wins and 29 losses, ranking 4th in the Eastern Conference. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, the probability of Polymarket predicting that "WTI crude oil will fall to $90 in April 2026" has increased significantly, now reaching 89%, a 35% increase in the last 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume of Polymarket's "WTI crude oil April 2026 price" event contract has exceeded $16.859 million. The rules for this event contract are: if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick chart in the active month of WTI crude oil futures during April 2026 is equal to or higher than the listing price, the market will determine it as "yes"; otherwise, the market will determine it as "no." Previously, the rules for the WTI crude oil March price prediction event contract were: if the official settlement price of the current active month (near-month) of the CME crude oil futures contract on any trading day is equal to or higher than the listing price up to the last trading day of March 2026, the market will determine it as "yes"; otherwise, the market will determine it as "no." According to Gate data, WTI crude oil is currently priced at $92.68, down 16.01% in the last 24 hours. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

According to Huoxun Finance, Polymarket has completed its acquisition of DeFi infrastructure company Brahma. Founded by Alessandro Tenconi, Akanshu Jain, and Bapireddy Karri, Brahma's team will continue to play key roles, overseeing infrastructure, protocol design, and product integration. This integration aims to improve the transaction reliability, execution speed, and capital efficiency of the Polymarket platform, while lowering the barrier to entry for new users and enhancing interoperability across blockchain networks.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Polymarket has announced the completion of its acquisition of DeFi infrastructure company Brahma. Founded by Alessandro Tenconi, Akanshu Jain, and Bapireddy Karri, Brahma's team will continue to play key roles, overseeing infrastructure, protocol design, and product integration. This integration aims to improve the transaction reliability, execution speed, and capital efficiency of the Polymarket platform, while lowering the barrier to entry for new users and enhancing interoperability across blockchain networks.

According to Huoxun Finance, at least 11 addresses profited through time-based predictions in Polymarket's "US-Iran Ceasefire" prediction market. The most profitable address, 0xffa6b3...30fe, earned approximately $405,000, followed by address 0xa4eb52...d010 with approximately $339,000. The total profit for all addresses reached $1,913,292.47. These trades were concentrated in multiple ceasefire periods expiring in March and April. Some early bets on a March ceasefire initially resulted in losses, but later positions saw significant profits as the anticipated ceasefire materialized in early April.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that a Polymarket wallet cluster profited $600,000 by betting on a US-Iran ceasefire. This cluster is linked to a wider network of suspected insiders who trade geopolitical events with unusual accuracy. These accounts are connected to a larger cluster that previously profited approximately $1.2 million by betting on a US strike against Iran. They typically use wallets with newly deposited funds to place "YES" bets on specific dates like February 28th, hours before the event, and have accurately predicted events such as attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, Israeli strikes against Iran, and US strikes against Iran. (SolanaFloor)

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of Polymarket's "Trump announcing the end of military action against Iran before April 30" surged to 78% at one point, and is currently at 61%, a 30% increase in 24 hours. The total trading volume for the "When will Trump announce the end of military action against Iran?" event contract has now exceeded $15.669 million. The contract rules state that if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announces that the military action against Iran launched on February 28, 2026, has ended by a specified date (Eastern Time), the market will classify it as "yes"; otherwise, it will classify it as "no." A valid statement must clearly indicate that the action has ended. Informal statements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaked information are not eligible. Public written statements by Trump (e.g., posts on his personal "Truth Social" account) and videos posted on Trump's social media accounts are considered valid statements. The market's primary basis for judgment is the official statement from the US government and/or its official representatives, but it also considers consensus from other credible reports. Previously, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran and stated that the US would assist in addressing the growing shipping congestion in the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump's post on Truth Social did not provide specific details on how the US would help with the strait, nor did it discuss the possibility of Iran continuing to charge tolls for certain vessels passing through the strait. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

According to Huoxun Finance, a Polymarket trader turned approximately $13,000 into approximately $475,000 by betting on a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, a return of over 3,500%.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, a Polymarket trader turned approximately $13,000 into approximately $475,000 by betting on a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, a return of over 3,500%.

According to official news from Odaily Planet Daily, OKX Onchain OS has officially launched its Plugin Store, initially offering 15 plugins including those from OKX, Uniswap, Polymarket, and community submissions. The platform is open to all developers for plugin submissions, which must undergo both AI and human security reviews before being listed. Users can extend the on-chain capabilities of their agents through the Plugin Store, further enriching use cases. OKX Onchain OS is reportedly an on-chain infrastructure suite open to developers and AI agents, integrating Agentic Wallet, supporting 9 skills and 72 capabilities, covering various on-chain operation scenarios.

According to Odaily Seer, the prediction event for the NBA regular season game between the Brooklyn Nets and the Milwaukee Bucks on Polymarket has concluded, with the Nets winning the game. An account that had lost over $4 million (address: 0x492442eab586f242b53bda933fd5de859c8a3782) profited approximately $280,000 in this single game. Odaily Seer previously reported that this account had purchased approximately $240,000 worth of bets on a Nets victory at a price of approximately 46.5¢. With the Nets' victory, they are currently ranked 13th in the Eastern Conference, while the Bucks are ranked 11th. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, anticipating changes before they are priced in.

Odaily Seer's monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event that "Jesus will not return to earth before 2027," an account with profits exceeding $1 million (address: 0x13414a77a4be48988851c73dfd824d0168e70853) purchased a total of $480,000, with an average opening price of 96.1¢. Furthermore, this prediction relies on consensus from credible sources (which have not been publicly disclosed). The Second Advent (sometimes called the Second Coming or Parousia) is a Christian concept. Two thousand years ago, Jesus "came for the first time," and then ascended to heaven. The Second Advent refers to his return to earth in the future. This belief is based on messianic prophecy in the canonical Gospels and is part of much of Christian eschatology. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal traffic flow by April 30th on Polymarket has risen to approximately 57%, a 24-hour increase of about 43%, with current trading volume around $4.07 million. This market uses IMF PortWatch data for settlement; a "yes" result is defined as a 7-day moving average of 60 or more vessels passing through the Strait on any day within the market cycle, and a "no" result otherwise. The statistics include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers, and only data recorded by the IMF PortWatch system is considered. Previous news: Iranian Foreign Minister: With Iranian coordination, the Strait will be safe for passage within the next two weeks. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the forecast market, seeing changes before pricing.

According to Odaily Seer, an account that lost over $4 million (address: 0x492442eab586f242b53bda933fd5de859c8a3782) purchased 240,000 shares of the Nets predicting the Bucks would defeat the Brooklyn Bucks in the Polymarket prediction event, with an average opening price of 46.5¢. The NBA regular season game between the Nets and the Bucks will start at 7:30 AM Beijing time today. The NBA regular season is currently nearing its end, with the Nets holding a 19-59 record, ranking 13th in the Eastern Conference; the Bucks have a 31-47 record, ranking 11th in the Eastern Conference. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are priced in.

According to Huoxun Finance, prediction market Polymarket collected approximately $7.1 million in transaction fees in the first week of the second quarter, ranking among the most profitable DeFi protocols. If this growth rate continues, annualized transaction fee revenue could reach approximately $365 million, giving it a 96.8% share of on-chain prediction market transaction fees. This growth stems from the pricing reform on March 30th, after which daily transaction fees have stabilized at around $1 million, with consistently high trading activity. According to DeFiLlama data, Polymarket's total value locked (TVL) reached $432 million, approaching the high point seen during the 2024 US presidential election. In terms of partnerships, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) completed a $600 million cash investment on March 27th—part of its total $2 billion commitment—to distribute Polymarket's event-driven data to institutional clients. The platform also completed a collateral asset adjustment on the Polygon chain: replacing the original USDC.e collateral with the new 1:1 USDC-backed token Polymarket USD as trading collateral. However, despite rapid revenue growth, Polymarket still faces regulatory risks. Some U.S. states, Hungary, Portugal, and Argentina have imposed restrictions or blockades on its prediction market operations, arguing that the platform is considered an unlicensed gambling site.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, prediction market Polymarket earned approximately $7.1 million in transaction fees in the first week of the second quarter, making it one of the most profitable protocols in DeFi. If this growth continues, its annualized transaction fee revenue could reach approximately $365 million, potentially accounting for 96.8% of the on-chain prediction market transaction fees. Analysts believe this growth stems from the pricing reform on March 30th, after which its daily transaction fees have remained around $1 million, with consistently high trading activity. According to DeFiLlama data, Polymarket's total value locked (TVL) has surpassed $432 million, approaching the high point seen during the 2024 US presidential election. Regarding mainstream partnerships, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) completed a $600 million cash investment on March 27th, as part of a larger $2 billion commitment, to distribute Polymarket's event-driven data to institutional clients. Despite rapid revenue growth, regulatory risks remain. Some US states, Hungary, Portugal, and Argentina, among other countries and regions, have imposed restrictions or blocked prediction markets, arguing that Polymarket is considered an unlicensed gambling platform. (Cointelegraph)

According to Odaily Seer, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran by May 15th on Polymarket has dropped to 37%, a 45% decrease in 24 hours. The total trading volume of contracts related to the "US-Iran ceasefire" event has exceeded $107 million. The rules of this event contract state that if the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement (defined as a public announcement and mutual agreement to cease direct military action) by a specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will mark it as "yes"; otherwise, it will be "no." A "formal ceasefire agreement" requires explicit public confirmation from both the US and Iranian governments that they have agreed to cease military hostilities against each other, or overwhelming consensus confirmed through media reports. US Vice President Vance previously reiterated that the deadline for Iran was 8 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday (8 AM Wednesday Beijing Time), and stated that Kharg Island did not signify a strategic shift. Earlier, according to two US officials, the US launched strikes on military targets on Kharg Island earlier on Tuesday (local time) before the deadline set by Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. One official said the U.S. struck more than 50 targets on the island. Officials said the strikes took place early Tuesday morning Eastern Time and did not target oil infrastructure. Trump had set Tuesday evening (Eastern Time) as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or it would face the risk of a devastating attack on its energy infrastructure. Odaily Seer continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing them in.

According to Huoxun Finance, Defillama founder 0xngmi stated that Polymarket users have approximately $1.25 billion in their wallets, and if the platform is willing to retain interest income, it will generate $54 million in interest income annually at the current interest rate.