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Market Trends Trading Insights Data Broadcast New Listing Alert Prediction Market

Bitcoin faces challenges this week from CPI and PPI data, with the market betting on a 58.4% probability of a Fed rate hike in September.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats, Bitcoin faces several key macroeconomic events this week. The US August PPI and CPI will be released on Thursday and Friday respectively, and the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on September 16. CME FedWatch data shows that the market currently expects a 58.4% probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%.

Meanwhile, Japan's record-breaking currency intervention and its potential sale of US Treasury bonds have become a focus of market attention. Japan's foreign exchange reserves have decreased by approximately $79.57 billion since the end of July, leading the market to believe that Japan may sell US Treasury bonds to fund its yen intervention. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September is currently at 98%. Changes in the yen and carry trades could further impact global liquidity and the crypto market.

Regarding on-chain data, CryptoQuant points out that the recent BTC surge is primarily driven by the futures market, without corresponding confirmation from spot demand. Derivative open interest increased by approximately $2.3 billion to $27.53 billion in a single day, while spot demand remains negative, meaning the sustainability of the current rally remains questionable.

From a technical perspective, BTC achieved its first weekly close above $80,000 in several months this week, but strong selling pressure still exists around $80,000. Meanwhile, the BTC weekly Supertrend indicator turned a "buy" signal for the first time since November 2025, a similar signal that appeared after the bear market bottomed out in early 2023.

The probability of a foldable iPhone launching in the US at a price higher than $2,300 on Polymarket has dropped to 15%, a 35% decrease in a single week.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP's market prediction tool, the probability of a foldable iPhone's initial US price exceeding $2,300 has dropped to 15% on Polymarket, a 35% decrease in a single week; the probability of it exceeding $2,200 has dropped to 42%, a 17% decrease in a single week. The contract rules for this event are as follows: any foldable smartphone released by Apple will be considered a foldable iPhone, even if it is not explicitly named iPhone. If the price of the first publicly announced foldable iPhone in the US market is greater than or equal to a specified amount, the market will be judged as "yes"; otherwise, it will be judged as "no." If Apple releases multiple foldable iPhones, the lowest announced starting price will be used. If Apple does not announce the price of the foldable iPhone before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on September 30, 2026, the market will be judged as "no." According to Apple's official announcement, the 2026 fall product launch event will be held at 1:00 AM Beijing time on September 10th, with the theme "Surprise and Shine." However, Vodafone's pricing data in Australia and Egypt has unexpectedly leaked. Australian sources indicate that the iPhone Ultra will offer 256GB, 512GB, and 1TB storage options, starting at AU$3699. Industry insiders speculate that the starting price for the US version of the Ultra may be around $2000. Join the PPP signal push community to get a head start and seize opportunities.

The UK's FCA is considering easing its ban on financial prediction markets.

Source: 区块律动

According to a report by The Times on September 7, BlockBeats stated that the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has been in discussions with several trading platforms regarding a potential relaxation of the ban on financial prediction markets for retail investors, which has been in place since 2019.

The FCA previously classified forecast contracts linked to financial events and certain weather events as binary options and banned their sale to retail investors since 2019. However, as UK consumers increasingly turn to overseas platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, the agency is considering easing the restrictions, and its current public stance still supports maintaining the ban.

An account has cumulatively purchased $143,000; the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September.

Source: 星球日报

PPP forecasting market monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "Will the Fed keep interest rates unchanged in September?" prediction event, an account (0x011175c87089797b1c5bebcfb6d501b4c51d60f7) with accumulated losses exceeding $50,000 continued to increase its position in the prediction that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September. Currently, it has purchased a total of $143,000, with an average opening price of 52¢, and its holdings have increased to 283,712.6 units. According to the settlement rules, this market will settle based on the interest rate change after the Fed's September 2026 FOMC meeting. If the interest rate adjustment is not among the existing options, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. For example, a 12.5 basis point rate cut or hike will be calculated as 25 basis points. If no relevant statement is issued before the end of the meeting, the event will be settled as "unchanged". The next FOMC meeting will be held on September 15-16, 2026. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead of the curve and seize opportunities.

The probability of George Russell winning the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix has risen to 49% on Polymarket, a 13% increase in 24 hours.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP's market prediction tool, the probability of George Russell winning the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix has risen to 49%, a 13% increase in 24 hours. Additionally, Pierre Gasly's probability of winning has unexpectedly increased from 0% to 6%. The 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix will start at 21:00 Beijing time tonight at the Monza circuit. Several unexpected events during qualifying have caused significant fluctuations in driver predictions. Alpine's Pierre Gasly surprisingly secured his first career pole position with a time of 1 minute 21.786 seconds, followed closely by championship favorite George Russell. Meanwhile, Piastri, who qualified third, was penalized three positions for obstructing other drivers, benefiting two Ferrari drivers: Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton, who started the race from third and fourth pole positions respectively. Join the PPP signal push community to get a head start and seize the opportunity.

Polymarket's prediction that "ETH will reach $2,600 in the remainder of September" has risen to 74%, a 10% increase in the last 24 hours.

Source: 星球日报

PPP prediction market monitoring shows that the probability of ETH reaching $2600 in the remainder of September on Polymarket has risen to 74%, a 10% increase in the last 24 hours. Furthermore, the probability of reaching $2700 has risen to 51%, a 9% increase in the last 24 hours. According to the settlement rules, if the highest price of any 1-minute candlestick chart for Binance ETH/USDT reaches or exceeds a specified price within a specified month, the market settles as "Yes," otherwise as "No." This market settlement is based solely on Binance ETH/USDT price data; prices from other exchanges or trading pairs are not considered. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead and seize opportunities.

Polymarket plans to collaborate with NBA star LeBron James on a marketing campaign.

Source: 区块律动

According to a CNBC report on September 6th, BlockBeats reports that Polymarket will be collaborating with NBA star LeBron James on a major marketing campaign, with more details expected to be released next week. Last night, LeBron James's X account posted a video ad related to Polymarket.

NBA superstar LeBron James announced a partnership with prediction market Polymarket.

Source: 星球日报

Odaily Planet Daily reports that NBA superstar LeBron James announced on the X platform that he has visited the headquarters of prediction market platform Polymarket and is about to enter into a partnership with Polymarket, with the caption "Coming Soon." According to the video posted by LeBron James, among the various options displayed on Polymarket, including "Crypto," "Sports," "Economy," "Culture," "Weather," and "Esports," LeBron James selected the "Sports" button, suggesting a potential future collaboration in the sports field.

An account purchased $74,600; the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September.

Source: 星球日报

PPP's market prediction tool monitoring shows that in Polymarket's "Will the Fed keep interest rates unchanged in September?" prediction event, an account (0x011175c87089797b1c5bebcfb6d501b4c51d60f7) with accumulated losses exceeding $50,000 purchased $74,600 worth of shares, predicting the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in September. The average opening price was 53.6¢, and the number of shares purchased was 153,845.8. According to the settlement rules, this market will settle based on the interest rate change following the Fed's September 2026 FOMC meeting. If the interest rate adjustment is not among the existing options, it will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points; for example, a 12.5 basis point rate cut or hike will be calculated as 25 basis points. If no relevant statement is issued before the end of the meeting, the event will settle as "unchanged". The next FOMC meeting will be held on September 15-16, 2026. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead of the curve and seize opportunities.

Polymarket launches cryptocurrency perpetual contracts, supporting leverage up to 20x.

Source: 星球日报

Odaily Planet Daily reports that prediction market platform Polymarket launched its perpetual contract product, Polymarket Perps, on September 3rd. The initial offering included 10 contracts covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, HYPE, gold, silver, WTI crude oil, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and SpaceX stock. Within hours, this expanded to 67 markets. The product has no expiration date, and the contract price continuously tracks the underlying asset, maintaining its peg to the spot price through hourly settled funding rates, with a maximum funding rate of 4% per hour in both directions. Cryptocurrencies, S&P 500, crude oil, gold, and silver support up to 20x leverage, while individual stocks and other real-world assets support up to 10x leverage. US traders unable to place Perps orders will be redirected to Polymarket US, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This arrangement stems from a 2022 settlement between Polymarket and the CFTC, where the company was fined $1.4 million for operating an unregistered swap trading facility and was required to cease related non-compliant contracts. (Decrypt)

Ahead of the non-farm payrolls report, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September rose to 60% on Polymarket, a 9% increase in 24 hours.

Source: 星球日报

PPP forecasting market monitoring shows that ahead of the non-farm payrolls report, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in September rose to 60% on Polymarket, a 9% increase in 24 hours; the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike fell to 42%, an 8% decrease in 24 hours. The US August non-farm payrolls report will be released tonight at 8:30 PM, with a median forecast of 56,000 new jobs, but the forecast range is extremely wide. Following the negative non-farm payrolls in July and the unexpectedly weak ADP data this week, be wary of further market volatility tonight's non-farm payrolls report. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead of the curve and seize opportunities.

Polymarket launches perpetual contracts across the board, supporting cryptocurrency, stock, and commodity trading.

Source: 星球日报

Odaily Planet Daily reports that prediction market Polymarket has officially launched its perpetual contract feature, supporting trading in assets such as cryptocurrencies, stocks, and commodities, with leverage up to 20x. On July 9, 2026, Polymarket launched trading on select assets, supporting 10 assets including Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and the S&P 500, with leverage up to 20x. Today, it officially launches perpetual futures trading with broader coverage.

Polymarket has officially launched its perpetual contract feature, supporting cryptocurrencies, stocks, commodities, and more.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats, on September 3, prediction market Polymarket officially launched its perpetual contract feature, supporting trading in cryptocurrencies, stocks, commodities, and more, with leverage up to 20x.

On July 9, 2026, Polymarket launched trading on select assets, supporting 10 assets including BTC, ETH, gold, and the S&P 500, with leverage up to 20x. Today, it officially launched perpetual futures trading, covering a wider range of assets.

Hyperliquid: Permissionless deployment nearly tripled trading volume in the HIP-4 prediction market, but market access remains a major limitation.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats, on September 3, Hyperliquid Research Collective (HRC) released a report stating that Hyperliquid's trading volume has grown rapidly since it opened up third-party permissionless deployment of the HIP-4 prediction market layer on August 29.

HIP-4's average daily trading volume in the first 28 days of August was approximately $545,000. After deployment, the daily trading volume rose to $1.97 million on August 31, and the trading volume in the last 24 hours reached $2.75 million. The number of active traders increased from 1,256 to 1,841.

The report points out that the prediction market project Outcome has become the main beneficiary, currently accounting for nearly 85% of the trading volume share of HIP-4, and its $1 million trading incentive program has further boosted liquidity growth.

HRC believes Hyperliquid's core advantage lies in its unified account system. Prediction markets share an account environment with perpetual contracts and HIP-3 assets, allowing users to hedge perpetual positions using prediction market contracts—an experience currently unavailable on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The sports prediction market may represent the biggest growth potential for HIP-4. During the previous World Cup, HIP-4-related markets saw a cumulative trading volume of $189.5 million, accounting for approximately 3% of the global World Cup prediction market trading volume.

However, HRC stated that the main limitation HIP-4 currently faces is not on-chain deployment, but rather regulatory access. The US market involves regulatory frameworks such as the CFTC and SEC, and sports prediction markets are particularly likely to trigger gambling-related regulatory scrutiny. HIP-4 has proven that permissionless deployment can rapidly increase transaction volume, but whether it can further expand its market share will depend on the regulatory environment, the recovery of the sports market, and future governance votes.

Polymarket's probability of GPT-6 being released before September 15th has risen to 88%, a 45% increase in the last 24 hours.

Source: 星球日报

PPP prediction market monitoring shows that Polymarket's probability of GPT-6 being released before September 15th has risen to 88%, a 45% increase in 24 hours; the probability of being released before September 30th has risen to 90%, a 34% increase in 24 hours. If OpenAI releases GPT-6 to the public before the specified date in 2026, the event will be settled as "Yes," otherwise as "No." GPT-6 must be officially open to the public, including public testing or an open waiting list; closed testing or private access does not count. Eligible products must be explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g., ChatGPT-6o) or be recognized as the next-generation model of GPT-5. Products still belonging to the GPT-5 series, such as GPT-5.5, do not count. The settlement is primarily based on official OpenAI information and references credible media reports. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead and seize opportunities.

The Clarity Act has a 15% chance of passing in 2026, and could face a procedural vote in the Senate as early as September 15.

Source: 星球日报

According to data from the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act being passed and signed by the president in 2026 is 15%, with related contract trading volume estimated at $11.62 million. Kalshi data shows that the probability of this bill, or other eligible crypto market structure bills, becoming law by July 1, 2027, is 30%, and by January 1, 2028, it is 50%. During his testimony at a hearing on September 2, French Hill, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, listed the House passage of the CLARITY Act as a committee achievement, stating that Republican committee members are pushing to enshrine related reforms into law, making financial rules long-term and predictable. The US Senate schedule indicates that the motion to end debate on HR 3633 is expected to enter the voting stage as early as 2:15 PM on September 15, typically requiring 60 votes. The Senate Banking Committee passed the bill on May 14 with 15 votes in favor and 9 against. Subsequent revisions will address the regulatory authority of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), consumer protection, illicit finance, DeFi, intermediary regulation, and disclosure requirements. (Bitcoin.com News)

Kalshi and Polymarket saw their trading volume decline by 14.5% month-over-month in August, marking the first drop in over a year.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats, on September 2nd, the combined trading volume of Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US in August fell to $45.33 billion, a 14.5% decrease month-over-month, marking the first monthly decline since August 2025.

Kalshi's trading volume in August was $37.17 billion, a 7.3% decrease from $40.1 billion in July; Polymarket and its US platform combined had a trading volume of $8.16 billion, a 36.7% decrease from $12.89 billion in July. Despite the overall decline, August's trading volume was still significantly higher than May's $25.66 billion.

Previously, it was predicted that market trading volume would be boosted this summer by the World Cup, held from June 11 to July 19, which significantly increased market trading activity. Meanwhile, Kalshi and Polymarket are currently facing further scrutiny from US state regulators, with more than ten states taking enforcement action or filing lawsuits against the two platforms, primarily concerning sports-related contracts.

Polymarket's probability of "OpenAI's Astra launching before September 11th" has risen to 86%, a 41% increase in the last 24 hours.

Source: 星球日报

PPP prediction market monitoring shows that the probability of OpenAI's Astra being released before September 11th has risen to 86%, a 41% increase in 24 hours; the probability of being released before September 15th has risen to 91%, a 29% increase in 24 hours. If OpenAI releases "Astra" to the public before the specified date, or releases a product whose model is confirmed by official sources or credible media to be the same as the previously announced "Astra," the event will be settled as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be settled as "No." Eligible models can use names such as Astra, Astra Astra 6, GPT-6 Astra, etc., and can also be renamed for release. Models such as GPT-5.7 and GPT-6 only count if confirmed to be the same model as the previously mentioned Astra. The model must be publicly available, including public testing or an open waiting list; closed testing and private access do not count. Settlement is primarily based on official OpenAI information and references consensus reports from credible media. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead and seize opportunities.

For the first time, Kalshi and Polymarket's combined trading volume fell to $45.33 billion in August, marking their first monthly decline.

Source: 星球日报

According to Odaily Planet Daily, the combined monthly trading volume of Kalshi and Polymarket fell to $45.33 billion in August, a 14.5% decrease month-over-month, marking the first monthly decline since August 2025. Trading volume in the prediction market rose during the World Cup from June 11 to July 19, but declined in August after the tournament ended. Kalshi's August trading volume was $37.17 billion, a 7.3% decrease month-over-month; Polymarket and its US platform's combined trading volume was $8.16 billion, a 36.7% decrease month-over-month. August's trading volume was higher than May's $25.66 billion.

PONS earned approximately $4.73 million in fees in a single day, exceeding the combined total of Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Fomo.

Source: 星球日报

According to data from Odaily Planet Daily, PONS generated approximately $4.73 million in transaction fees in the past 24 hours, exceeding the combined $3.461 million from Hyperliquid, Polymarket, and Fomo. Furthermore, PONS's daily transaction fees also surpassed the combined $4.65 million from the network transaction fees of Robinhood Chain, BSC, and Solana. Bubblemaps notes that the public chain data only includes network transaction fees and does not include fees generated by their upper-layer protocols.

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