According to BlockBeats, on August 17th, JPMorgan Chase notified Polymarket in October 2025 that it would be terminating its partnership due to regulatory concerns. Polymarket subsequently transferred its banking operations to another undisclosed lending institution. However, ties between the two companies have not been completely severed. JPMorgan Chase stated that it is interested in pursuing an underwriting role should Polymarket launch an IPO in the future. An insider stated, "They don't want to burn all bridges." Polymarket, however, disputed the claim that the two companies had largely severed ties, emphasizing that it maintains a "close and active relationship" with JPMorgan Chase "across multiple entities, operational integration, and the substantial handling of customer cash flows."

The prediction market is experiencing explosive growth, with nominal trading volume exceeding $250 billion by 2026. However, this growth has also attracted increased regulatory scrutiny, with over 12 US states filing lawsuits against Polymarket and Kalshi, accusing them of illegal sports betting. Recently, the CFTC invoked emergency powers to order Kalshi to continue operating in New York, further escalating the dispute over federal and state jurisdiction. Meanwhile, the US government is conducting "de-banking" investigations into several large banks, with Trump himself suing JPMorgan Chase and CEO Jamie Dimon, accusing them of closing his accounts for political reasons. JPMorgan Chase is exhibiting a dual stance between banking relationships and potential business opportunities, and traditional financial institutions remain cautious as the compliance boundaries of prediction markets remain unclear.

According to BlockBeats, on August 17th, according to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) , since xm39, a geopolitical conflict trader, first tracked the market on July 30th, Polymarket's probability of "the US invading Iran before 2027" has dropped from its initial entry range of approximately 27.63% to 16.5%. However, Polymarket has continued to increase its bets and expanded its trading from a single bet on crude oil to a "long oil, short equity" combination.

Currently, xm39 has invested approximately $321,100 in this prediction market, a 44% increase since the initial monitoring, with the average cost decreasing to 24.49%. The current value of the position is approximately $216,300, with a floating loss of approximately $104,800, representing a loss of 32.6%. This morning, it continued to buy 25 times with approximately a 16% probability.

Meanwhile, its Hyperliquid position has expanded from a single long WTI contract of approximately $13.22 million at the time of initial tracking to approximately $17.606 million.

A 20x leveraged long position in WTI yielded approximately $7.299 million, with a paper profit of approximately $70,500.

A 30x leveraged short position in XYZ100 resulted in a loss of approximately $13,400, with a total investment of approximately $10.307 million.

This morning, xm39 simultaneously added approximately $2.867 million in WTI long positions and $7.128 million in XYZ100 short positions, while continuing to place approximately $2.664 million in crude oil buy orders between $79.06 and $81.21.

According to BlockBeats, on August 17th, sports betting platform Novig filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Wisconsin against Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul. Wisconsin had already sued Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Coinbase in April, accusing their sports event contracts of violating state regulations and constituting a "public nuisance." Anticipating its own impending lawsuit, Novig preemptively filed its own. Legally, Novig argues that its sports contracts fall under the Commodity Exchange Act (COMEX) and are subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC.

According to BlockBeats, on August 15, sources revealed that US President Trump is expected to attend a crypto industry innovation conference at the White House next week, where he will meet with executives from several crypto companies, as well as heads of prediction markets and AI companies.

Participants in this meeting included executives from companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Robinhood, Polymarket, and Kalshi. These corporate executives are all members of the newly established Innovation Advisory Committee of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Sources say the meeting is expected to be held at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next to the White House, and will focus on policy dialogue on innovative areas such as U.S. fintech, crypto assets, prediction markets, and artificial intelligence. CFTC Chairman Mike Selig and other government advisors are expected to attend, and Treasury Secretary Bessant and Commerce Secretary Lutnick may also be present.

Following this, the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee will hold its first formal meeting, focusing on topics such as "The Evolution of Crypto Regulatory Oversight: From Uncertainty to Clarity" and establishing a long-term federal market structure.

Currently, the U.S. Congress is still pushing forward with the review of the CLARITY Act, and whether the bill can be further advanced remains affected by the regulatory framework and conflicts of interest.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on August 15th, sources familiar with the matter said that JPMorgan Chase terminated its banking relationship with prediction market Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns. However, JPMorgan Chase still maintains some working relationships with Polymarket and other prediction market companies.

A Polymarket spokesperson stated that the company maintains a "close and active relationship" with JPMorgan Chase through multiple entities. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has also attended three JPMorgan Chase events in the past year. Earlier this year, a major Polymarket investor assisted in its discussions with large banks such as Citigroup and Fifth Third.

Currently, prediction markets are facing stricter scrutiny from state and federal regulators in the United States. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating Polymarket, and the New York City Council is also investigating its marketing practices; meanwhile, several states are still litigating whether prediction markets should be regulated as gambling businesses.

JPMorgan Chase had previously drawn scrutiny from the Trump administration over its alleged "de-banking" practices. Trump has asked regulators to investigate whether banks have engaged in "politicized or illegal de-banking," and JPMorgan Chase received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice last month for this reason.

According to BlockBeats, on August 14th, tradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) reported that despite the escalating conflict today, trader "Valen9" maintained a nearly one million dollar short position in WTI on Hyperliquid. His cross-platform trading strategy continues to focus on easing geopolitical risks and a decline in crude oil risk premiums.

Currently, it has a 14x leveraged short position of approximately 12,100 WTI crude oil contracts, with a position value of approximately $975,800. The average price is $81.10, and the unrealized profit is approximately $6,376 (+9.1%). A partial take-profit order has been placed at $73.10. Its history includes 8 rounds of WTI crude oil contract trading and 1 S&P 500 trade, with a total contract return of 72%.

In addition, Valen9 continued to adjust its Iran-related bets on Polymarket today, further narrowing its previously broad geopolitical exposure to three very specific de-escalation paths: airspace, ceasefire, and blockade.

Specifically, $2,070, $972, and $337.8 were invested in trading on the following market trends: "Iran will not completely close its airspace before the end of the year," "The ceasefire between Israel and Iran will continue until the end of the year," and "The United States will end its blockade against Iran before August 22," generating a total of approximately $3,380 in new investments. At the same time, 2,591.1 shares of "The United States will invade Iran before 2027" were sold, partially realizing profits.

Valen9 currently holds 70 active positions on Polymarket, valued at $637,000, of which 46 are concentrated in geopolitics, totaling approximately $365,200. The largest single geopolitical position remains the "US will invade Iran before 2027" No. 1 share, valued at approximately $68,000.

The underlying assets differ at both ends of the trading, but the underlying logic is largely the same. Historically, Valen9 has closed 469 geopolitical prediction positions, with a record of 281 wins and 188 losses, a win rate of approximately 59.9%, and a cumulative profit of approximately $134,100. Currently, its primary market exposure remains concentrated in this sector.

The on-chain Perp and address analysis tool TradingBeats are now live, supporting real-time viewing of Hyperliquid data, from address tracing to whale operations, providing in-depth analysis and a complete overview.

According to BlockBeats, on August 14, the Financial Times reported that JPMorgan Chase terminated its banking services relationship with prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns, but did not completely sever business ties with the company and is still vying for underwriting opportunities for Polymarket's future IPO.

Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Polymarket was prohibited from providing services to U.S. clients due to a 2022 enforcement action by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), prompting JPMorgan Chase to request it find a new banking institution. Polymarket has since partnered with a new bank, but the specific name has not been disclosed.

Despite this, JPMorgan Chase continues to do business with Polymarket. In February, the bank invited Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan to a private banking client conference in Miami, where he co-speaked with former NFL star Tom Brady. Sources familiar with the matter say that JPMorgan Chase hopes to retain the possibility of underwriting a future Polymarket IPO.

Polymarket stated that it maintains a "close and active relationship" with JPMorgan Chase across multiple entities, operational integration, and client cash flow management, and that any statement to the contrary seriously misunderstands the relationship between the two parties.

In recent years, the prediction market has expanded rapidly and has continued to attract the attention of regulators. Since 2026, platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have faced legal action in several US states for allegedly operating illegal sports betting. Both companies maintain that they are exchanges that connect buyers and sellers, rather than betting operators.

According to data compiled by Dune users, the nominal trading volume of the prediction market has exceeded $250 billion since 2026. Meanwhile, Polymarket is seeking to raise over $1 billion, targeting a valuation of $20 billion, more than double its valuation of approximately $8 billion in its last funding round in 2025.

According to BlockBeats, on August 14, a Washington state court issued a final ruling ordering prediction market platform Kalshi to cease offering event contracts in the state covering sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, technology, science, and "person mentions." The court believes that Kalshi is likely in violation of Washington state's gambling regulations.

The court ordered Kalshi to implement geofencing by IP address and user residence by August 19th, and to upgrade to a multi-source geofencing system by September 2nd, to prevent Washington state users from accessing restricted markets. Kalshi was also prohibited from promoting its betting products to consumers in the state.

However, the court did not restrict all of Kalshi's operations, and contracts related to commodities, climate, economy, and finance can still be offered in Washington state.

This ruling stems from a lawsuit previously filed by the state of Washington. Kalshi had applied for a stay of the injunction, but this was denied by the Washington State Court of Appeals. Meanwhile, several state and local governments in the United States are questioning whether Kalshi's event contracts constitute illegal gambling under state law, while Kalshi argues that its business should be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under federal law.

On the same day, Baltimore, Maryland's largest city, also sued Kalshi and Polymarket, accusing them of providing illegal gambling products. Kalshi faces increasing pressure from state and local regulators.