'Truflation' Measure Shows Complete Collapse

There has been a total collapse in the ' Truflation ' metric. Even a small degree of congruence with reality would startle the markets even more.

Either Truflation is a great tool, or they're using the wrong approach, which will be determined in the next one to two months.

What is the Truflation Index?

To remove any possibility of manipulation or out-of-date procedures, Truflation uses blockchain technology to guarantee that all of its data is transparent, unchangeable, and accessible.

Compared to the CPI, which only updates once a month and is not up-to-date with real-time economic changes, Truflation provides more accurate and timely inflation insights with data updated daily from more than 18 million sources.

When compared to centralized systems like CPI, Truflation's use of decentralized oracles and foreign data sources guarantees accuracy and reduces bias.

Investors, companies, and lawmakers can all benefit from Truflation's real-time data, which aids in portfolio management, pricing, and policy adjustment decisions.

The Truflation US Inflation Index uses over 30 million data points to assess price changes and, as a result, provide a robust forecast for the BLS CPI number. Moreover, their data have proven to be an incredibly accurate forecasting tool.

The index tends to lead CPI by 45 days.

The Truflation Index started the year at 2.77%. It has since plummeted to below 1.5%.

Thus, if the index remains a good inflation forecaster, CPI price growth could fall significantly by April and May.

If the Truflation gauge is anything to go by, then the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates faster than previously anticipated as the recession warnings are blaring.

On Sunday, Trump refrained from commenting on the adverse market response to his inconsistent tariff policies concerning major US trading partners, and whether concerns regarding his unpredictable policy changes could propel a weakening economy into recession.

"There is a period of transition, because what we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America," Trump said.

He added, "It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us."

Tariffs have emerged as a significant concern for investors, since many argue that they may impede economic growth and contribute to inflation.

Although Trump recognized on February 2 that his extensive tariffs might inflict some "short-term" discomfort on Americans, his advisers have consistently minimized any adverse effects.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said, "Absolutely not. There's going to be no recession in America."

While Lutnick acknowledged that the Trump tariffs would result in increased pricing for US customers on certain foreign-made goods, he asserted that American products would become less expensive.

Last Tuesday, Trump imposed new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, alongside further levies on Chinese goods, citing that the top three U.S. trading partners had not sufficiently addressed the influx of lethal fentanyl and its precursor chemicals into the United States.

Two days later, he suspended tariffs on numerous imports from Mexico and certain items from Canada for one month, marking the latest development in a volatile trade policy that has unsettled markets and heightened concerns regarding US inflation and economic growth.

This marked the second occasion in two months that Trump has withdrawn fentanyl-related tariffs on the United States' neighbors.

Meanwhile, legislators on Capitol Hill are urgently attempting to enact a funding measure to prevent a government shutdown.

The inconsistent tariff pronouncements have unsettled Wall Street and the crypto market, as investors assert that the Trump administration's erratic decisions to retract charges on trading partners are generating confusion rather than providing relief.

The Trump trade policies have provoked concerns regarding potential trade wars that could hinder economic growth and elevate prices for Americans who are currently reeling from prolonged high inflation.

Recession concerns are mounting as US markets brace for the impact of Trump’s sweeping economic policies.

Tariffs, deep spending cuts, and mass layoffs of federal employees are fueling uncertainty, raising the odds of a 2025 downturn.

Markets have already reacted, with recession predictions rising to 37% on polymarket.com.

Small-cap stocks, often seen as a leading indicator of economic health, have fallen sharply, signaling a 45% chance of a recession.

Trump’s aggressive trade policies have thrown businesses into a state of limbo. But the president clarified that he was looking at something much larger for the US economy.

Reports suggest Americans are delaying investments, hiring, and expansion plans until they gain clarity on the economic landscape.

Consumer sentiment has also taken a hit, reaching its lowest level since 2023. Travel plans have notably declined, with far fewer Americans intending to vacation in the next six months.

JPMorgan’s trading desk has turned bearish, warning that market sentiment could trigger a downward spiral.

The economic outlook is dominated by uncertainty, which heightens the risk of a recession. Investors are closely monitoring any indications of a policy shift.

Elsewhere

Blockcast

Jess Zeng entered the crypto industry as an intern at Gemini while studying finance at SMU. She then moved on to work at Chainlink, where she transitioned from a business development role to an ecosystem-building focus.

After a stint at Fireblocks to gain institutional experience, she joined Mantle , where she now leads ecosystem growth for mETH - the liquid staking platform backed by Mantle.

Previous episodes of Blockcast can be found on Podpage , with guests like Samar Sen ( Talos), Jason Choi (Tangent), Lasanka Perera (Independent Reserve), Mark Rydon (Aethir), Peter Hui (Moongate), Luca Prosperi (M^0), Charles Hoskinson (Cardano), Aneirin Flynn (Failsafe), and Yat Siu (Animoca Brands) on our most recent shows.

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