President Donald Trump said a peace deal between Iran and the US has been finished, and a signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland.
While delaying the most contentious nuclear issues to subsequent negotiations, the framework reopens the Strait of Hormuz. In light of those updates on a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin has reached its highest level in nearly two weeks.
Bitcoin was priced at approximately $66,100 at publication time, reflecting an increase of about 2.5% over the past 24 hours. The second-largest token, Ether, experienced a 5.31% increase, reaching $1,763, while smaller tokens such as Solana and XRP saw even greater gains.
The recent fluctuations in the market have led to a decline in Bitcoin's price, dropping below $60,000, marking its lowest point since October 2024, which has triggered a rebound.
The US-Iran deal is not a definitive treaty, but rather an agreement that will remain in effect for 60 days.
The conflict stops, oil flows more easily, and sanctions against Iran are lifted in exchange for its compliance. The weaponry and enrichment issues remain contentious.
Some think the framework isn't a long-term answer as it just offers temporary relief – around 60 days. There will likely be a second round of talks about regional proxies, missiles, and permanent enrichment limitations.
We still have some real problems to solve. According to the Pentagon, clearing Hormuz of all mines might take up to six months, which could put off returning commerce to pre-war levels.
In response to the latest developments, international markets saw immediate fluctuations in the prices of Bitcoin, gold, and oil.
With calm financial markets before the deal, a more stable geopolitical climate would further support Bitcoin's return.
An important measure of the truce's durability will be the ceremony on June 19. Evaluation becomes more difficult later on when negotiators try to figure out if adherence can replace the original agreements that were based on earlier arrangements.
The deal includes procedures for verification, sanctions to be eased over time, and a clear schedule for technical talks over Iran's nuclear programs.
While Israel has expressed some reservations and is not directly participating, the ceasefire deals with Hezbollah in Lebanon in great detail.
Experts anticipate that effective execution may lead to stabilised energy costs, assist in managing worldwide inflation, and bolster economic expansion throughout 2026 and 2027.
Nonetheless, rigorous verification and adherence to regulations will continue to be crucial elements in preventing a potential breakdown of the entire agreement.
Bitcoin's bottom done?
Bitcoin climbed to over $66,000 on Monday, gaining from the overall sense of global relief, even while it continues to hover within a consolidation range between $63,000 and $65,000.
Experts observe that a sustained peace may redirect funds towards high-risk investments and lower caution in international financial markets.
Moreover, a more stable geopolitical environment could facilitate Bitcoin's movement beyond its current range, especially if equity markets show significant improvement.
Boost for risk assets
Still, market confidence surged following Trump's announcement on social media that a peace agreement with Iran "is now complete," along with the decision to lift the blockade of the strait, a vital trade route.
Asian markets surged, with S&P 500 futures rising by approximately 1%. Brent crude experienced a decline of over 4%.
Decreased tensions in the Middle East could support risk assets as we approach Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as the head of the US Federal Reserve this week.
However, an indication of elevated rates would likely impact cryptocurrencies negatively.
Gold has diminished its appeal as a refuge following the announcement. Spot gold was priced at approximately $4,300, reflecting a near 1.9% increase during the day, as reported by TradingView.
Nonetheless, the metal has experienced a decline of nearly 7% over the past month, indicating a diminishing geopolitical premium.
Experts caution that additional downward pressure may emerge if the peace agreement solidifies.
Current technical support levels for gold are positioned between $4,100 and $4,200, which may play a crucial role in determining the next phase of movement in the global precious metals markets.
Oil experienced the most significant movement among the three assets. WTI crude experienced a decline, trading at $81 per barrel, reflecting a drop of 4.57% within a 24-hour period. Meanwhile, Brent crude decreased to $84.15, marking a 3.64% fall during global trading sessions following the recent news.
Investors are currently looking forward to a stabilization in the Strait of Hormuz and a steady recovery of Iranian production and exports.
Consequently, there may be further downward pressure on oil prices in the near term if the cease-fire successfully maintains stability throughout the region.
Bitcoin's technicals
The breaking of the $64,500 mark marks the beginning of an upward trend in the price of Bitcoin. The token might aim for more gains over the $66,200 barrier now that it seems to be stabilizing.
Bitcoin has kept its price over $62,500, indicating a fresh rising trend has begun. Currently, the price is sitting above the $64,500 barrier and the 100-hour simple moving average.
Based on data from Kraken, a positive trend line is appearing on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair, with support indicated at $64,200. If it stays above the $65,500 and $66,200 levels, the pair has the potential to keep going up.
According to TradingView, the value of Bitcoin has begun to increase again after laying a firm base around $60,800.
Bitcoin's price has been trending upward, with a potential break over the $61,500 and $63,200 levels of resistance. Even beyond $64,500, the purchasers forced up the price.
From the swing low at $60,746 to the top at $65,847, there was an upward advance that was capped by a consolidation phase above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement line.
Presently, Bitcoin's price is more than $64,500, which is higher than the 100-hour simple moving average.
On the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair, a bullish trend line is coming into view, with support at $64,200.
Price action over $64,500 may indicate a potential reversal of recent gains.
The $65,500 mark is the nearest immediate obstacle. Around the $66,200 threshold is where the first major obstacle is.
The price has the potential to reach new heights if it breaks past the $66,200 barrier level.
Bitcoin might rise and test the $66,800 level of resistance in this case.
If prices continue to rise, they may reach $67,500. At$68,000, the bulls may face their next obstacle.
Another decline could be on the horizon for Bitcoin if it fails to surpass the $66,200 resistance level.
Near the $64,650 level, the token may encounter prompt backing. The $64,200 level represents the initial key support point.
The upcoming support level is expected to be near $63,300, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the price movement from the swing low of $60,746 to the peak of $65,847.
If the price keeps declining, it could soon encounter support at $62,500. Should Bitcoin fall below the current primary support of $61,800, it could face challenges in making a recovery in the near term.
ETFs snap outflows
Coin Bureau, an ETF flow tracker, reported $85.8 million in net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs on Friday, after five days of redemptions.
After many sessions in which institutional demand appeared to diminish and outflows persisted in applying pressure on the market narrative, the current turnaround gives traders fresh data.
According to the tracker, new acquisitions were led by FBTC of Fidelity and IBIT of BlackRock, with FBTC allegedly contributing over $42 million and IBIT roughly $35 million.
That helped ease the continuing strain from products that have consistently seen less demand or withdrawals.
A single day's worth of inflows cannot change the overall trend, and that is the most important thing to remember.
After a time when the story about institutional flows became pessimistic, the upturn of favorable ETF demand gives Bitcoin believers something concrete to hold on to.
A daily net outflow of $4.95 million was recorded in the most recent flow snapshot, indicating that spot Ether ETF products are still struggling to attract capital.
That difference is noteworthy since institutional risk tolerance towards the two biggest digital assets – Bitcoin and Ether – has been rapidly indicated by the flows of their respective ETFs.
It's possible that institutional investors still see BTC as a better macro and treasury-style allocation, given Bitcoin's recent turn back into positive flow territory and Ether funds continuing in the negative.
When compared to other cryptocurrencies, Ether is more directly tied to factors like staking, network income, and alternative cryptocurrency demand.
What next?
One of the most dependable daily indicators of demand in the spot market for Bitcoin traders is the movement of ETFs.
Even if good inflows don't always lead to price increases, they can reduce selling pressure and boost market sentiment-particularly when strong price changes are also present.
The market is watching Bitcoin's capacity to hold key support levels and recover momentum after recent declines with bated breath, so Friday's result is quite significant.
If funds continue to pour in throughout the next trading week, investors may start to see the five-day outflow as merely a temporary adjustment rather than the beginning of a bigger retreat by institutions.
Next, we need to see if the progress made lasts more than just one session.
Although a one-day recovery is helpful, the effects would be more magnified with a longer period of inflows.
Make no final judgments on cumulative ETF demand until you've reviewed the final consolidated numbers from dashboards like Farside Investors or SoSoValue.
Since traders no longer limit themselves to news pertaining to specific tokens, the broader market environment is of paramount importance.
The price of Bitcoin and other large-cap crypto assets is heavily influenced by institutional flows, filings, regulated derivatives, custodial arrangements, and regulatory revisions.
Even if they don't cause a visible change in values right away, advancements based on primary sources are nonetheless quite valuable.
The most important thing is to see if the changes affect liquidity, risk tolerance, compliance with regulations, or institutional trust.
When these indications come from authoritative sources like government papers, regulatory communications, exchange updates, or trustworthy data sets, they have the potential to influence market dynamics over the long term.
Other technical indicators
TradingView's technical analysis overview for Bitcoin in the coming week, based on key data from moving averages, oscillators, and pivots, showed a sell bias overall.
Within the technical indicator readings, the oscillators continued to hold steady, while moving averages still showed a strong sell signal.
Separately, InvestTech's Algorithmic Overall Analysis and a one-to six-week recommendation showed a negative score.
The research said, "Investors have accepted lower prices over time to get out of Bitcoin, and the token is in a falling trend channel in the short term. This signals increasing pessimism among investors and indicates further decline for Bitcoin. The token has support at $60,800 and resistance at $66,000. Negative volume balance indicates that volume is high on days with falling prices and low on days with rising prices, which weakens the cryptocurrency."
InvestTech added, "The short-term momentum of the token is strongly negative, with RSI below 30. This indicates increasing pessimism among investors and a further decline for Bitcoin. However, particularly in big stocks, a low RSI may be a sign that the stock is oversold and that there is a chance for a reaction upwards. Bitcoin is overall assessed as technically negative for the short term."
